Introduction

Mathematical models can be used to represent a version reality. They are simple representations of complex processes, but they are useful nonetheless.

Why do we use mathematical models?

• We can use models to make predictions of future infections, or of impact of interventions
• They help us to understand dynamics that we could not observe all at once in the ‘real world’.
• We can model complex problems are difficult to study in the lab or field.

What do we model?

For a model to be useful, we need to be able to see which factors affect which outcomes If there are too many parameters, then changing one we might not be able to see the affect This is related to the question, the model needs to be complex enough for the question but simple enough to make sense of the results

How do we model?

`How we model’ is the focus of this course. We will learn to implement ordinary differential equation models to make predictions about infection spread. Take the output below for example, a classic epidemic peak.

• What equations are used to make this plot?
• What parameters are included in the equations?
• What assumptions are made about how infections occur?

We will learn the answers to all of these questions and more.